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Development of a combined operational and strategic decision support model for offshore wind

机译:开发海上风电的运营和战略决策组合支持模型

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摘要

This paper presents the development of a combined operational and strategic decision support model for offshore wind operations. The purpose of the model is to allow developers and operators to explore various expected operating scenarios over the project lifetime in order to determine optimal operating strategies and associated risks. The required operational knowledge for the model is specified and the chosen methodology is described. The operational model has been established in the MATLAB environment in order to simulate operating costs and lost revenue, based on wind farm specification, operational climate and operating strategy. The outputs from this model are then used as the input to decision support analysis by establishing Bayesian Belief Networks and decision trees at various stages throughout the project life time. An illustrative case study, which demonstrates the capability and benefits of the modeling approach, is presented through the examination of different failure rates and alternative electricity price scenarios.
机译:本文介绍了海上风电运营和战略决策相结合的支持模型的开发。该模型的目的是允许开发人员和操作员在项目生命周期内探索各种预期的操作方案,以确定最佳的操作策略和相关的风险。指定了模型所需的操作知识,并描述了所选的方法。已在MATLAB环境中建立了运行模型,以便根据风电场规范,运行环境和运行策略来模拟运营成本和收入损失。然后,通过在整个项目生命周期的各个阶段建立贝叶斯信念网络和决策树,将该模型的输出用作决策支持分析的输入。通过检查不同的故障率和替代电价情景,提出了一个说明性案例研究,该案例研究证明了建模方法的功能和优势。

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